Will Moscow Sacrifice Ankara’s Ambitions to Sate the New Damascus?

USPA NEWS - In the corridors of silent diplomacy, where deals are struck far from the noise of public statements, a new "Bermuda Triangle" is taking shape in northern Syria. Its vertices: Moscow, Ankara, and Damascus. Today, these players are not merely seeking de-escalation; they are demanding a tangible "price" for every move. As Ahmed Al-Sharaa’s aircraft repeatedly touches down in Moscow, a haunting question echoes in Ankara: Has the moment of the Great Barter arrived?

Moscow, with its trademark pragmatism, has realized that securing its military assets in Tartus and Hmeimim now depends on the stability of the new authority in Damascus. The Kremlin must grant this new leadership "sovereign legitimacy" over its entire territory. Here lies the knot: the new Damascus demands the restoration of the North—a demand that places Turkish ambitions in direct collision with shifting Russian calculus.

Ankara: Security Fears vs. Field Realities
For President Erdogan, northern Syria was never just geography; it is a national "security belt" and a strategic leverage point. However, the winds in Moscow are blowing against Turkish sails. Putin, desperate for a stable Damascus to anchor his Mediterranean interests, finds himself compelled to pressure his Turkish ally into painful concessions—starting with a phased withdrawal and ending with the handover of vital border crossings.

The question haunting Ankara’s decision-makers: Will Moscow settle for providing "security guarantees" regarding the Kurdish file in exchange for a Turkish retreat? Or are we witnessing the birth of a "necessity alliance" between Damascus and Moscow that leaves Ankara isolated against the looming realities on the ground?

Damascus and Al-Sharaa: Playing the Strings of Contradiction
Ahmed Al-Sharaa is proving a remarkable ability to play the strings of international contradictions. He understands that Russia’s need for him grants him a bargaining power his predecessor lacked. In Moscow, he does not seek protection; he proposes "partnership." His implicit message to Putin is clear: "Give me the North, and I will grant you eternal stability for your interests."

This equation places Moscow in a precarious position. It cannot afford to lose Turkey as a vital regional and economic partner, yet it cannot ignore the demands of a Damascus that has become Russia’s sole "gateway" to cementing its influence in the New Middle East.

The Moment of Truth: Who Pays the Price?
What is unfolding in the "Northern Triangle" is a fundamental redrawing of the balance of power. If Moscow decides to appease Damascus at the expense of Turkish ambitions, we will witness a dramatic shift in regional alliances.

Diplomacy may succeed in delaying the confrontation, but it cannot erase the reality of clashing interests. Ultimately, one party must swallow the bitterness of concession. Will Ankara be the next sacrifice on the altar of "Russian Realism"? Or will Damascus settle for "diminished sovereignty" while waiting for the next political storm?

The coming days will unveil the hidden truths. One thing is certain: the Northern Bermuda Triangle has begun to swallow old understandings, giving rise to a reality where only those with the longest breath and the sharpest maneuverability will survive.