Washington and Beijing

A Long-Term Cold War?

Cover issue
Dr: Anmar Nizar Al-Droubi
USPA NEWS - Translated by Dr. May Al-Shaikhli

During an interview with a Spanish newspaper, the godfather of American diplomacy (Henry Kissinger) stated secrets about the conflict between Beijing and Washington. The following is the advice of the statement (Kissinger believes that the Cold War between Washington and Beijing this time is greater and more dangerous than the first Cold War, and it is a long-term war.
Especially since America and China have similar economic resources, which was not the case during the first Cold War, and that the two economic powers turned into rivals, considering that it is not permissible to wait for China to turn towards the West.Kissinger warned of the danger of the Sino-American conflict, which could turn into the biggest challenge facing humanity in light the great ability of the two countries to destroy the world). Kissinger's new statements come in light of the rising tension between the two countries over several serious issues such as the Taiwan Islands and the file of espionage through balloons or the Tik Tok application, and the most dangerous thing is the Sino-Russian rapprochement after the Chinese president's visit to Moscow.
Article Author's Analysis:

The end of the rivalry between the two superpowers (the Soviet Union and the United States of America) was not the key to stability in the world. History has not and will never be mere stages whose pages have been turned, but it returns with force to repeat itself to enable a country like China to exercise its role as one of the international powers with weight in the international system, as it has become one of the basic elements forming this system. At the same time, new patterns of war, political instability, and economic decline emerged in many parts of the world. The end of the ideological conflict between East and West had the effect of reducing the strategic importance of some countries. Undoubtedly, the military tool was and still is an essential tool in achieving the objectives of the interventions, with the employment of other tools besides the diplomatic and economic tools, but the ideological factor and the economic factor remain reflecting the pattern of managing the US-Chinese conflict.
It is worth noting that these events were not absent from a detailed vision (of Henry Kissinger) in his writings for the new regime, where he presents his vision in the light of international developments, in conjunction with the emergence of new international data such as crises in some Arab countries such as the war in Libya, the expansion of the influence of terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq, the spread of terrorism to Europe, where several countries witnessed terrorist attacks, as well as the international war and its alliances against terrorism, and the return of competition and tension in the US relations with Russia and China. As for the economic aspect, which is the most important and dangerous in the subject of the Sino-American conflict, the economic blocs undoubtedly found their intellectual expression in the theory of economic integration for China and the United States of America. And after the Second World War, interest in it became by several countries in the world, until the middle of the twentieth century came to be called the era of economic blocs.
Economic Competition between Washington and Beijing:

During the era of President Trump, there was a clear conflict between the two countries, as the former US President Trump assigned at the time the Treasury Secretary to officially designate China (a currency manipulator country) and the US Trade Representative was also assigned to file commercial lawsuits against Beijing, in Washington and in the World Trade Organization, in addition to using all aspects of presidential power to address trade disputes, if China does not stop its illegal activities, according to the Americans, including stealing American trade secrets, and applying tariffs on its products imported to the United States.
The stage of the Spread of the Corona Virus:

Controversy has emerged with the spread of the Corona virus (Covid 19) about its effects on the global economy and its reflection on the form of global power. The opinions that revolve in this regard may be based on several scenarios, as follows:
First scenario:
The Corona crisis will accelerate the shift of power from the West to the East (Asia in particular). Where the supporters of this vision believe that the post-Corona phase could be the beginning of a world order centered around China, and China will use its success in containing the virus to appear in the role of the new leader of the global system.
Second scenario:
This scenario excludes the idea of ??Chinese leadership of the global system, due to China's delay in informing the international community of the scale of the crisis in a timely manner.
Third scenario:
This scenario believes that the Corona crisis will enhance the strategic competition between the United States of America and China, but it will be a competition of a new kind about achieving relative gains without any party being able or willing to assume the position of global leadership.
Chip War:
The electronic chip war is a new flashpoint in US-Chinese relations, as US President Joe Biden indicated that technology export controls will be the first line of defense against competing superpowers such as China and Russia, so the world is currently witnessing a new conflict that has been highlighted as the chip war. The United States and China are in fierce competition over the chip industry, as American and Chinese defense systems depend heavily on semiconductors in the future conflict. Therefore, the ongoing fierce competition for the semiconductor industry between the United States and China has long-term repercussions in geopolitics.
Based on the foregoing, and as a result of the current transformations taking place in the international political system, particularly at the level of leadership, and the withdrawal trend of the United States of America,there is a very important question directed to China about its ability to fill this American gap and bear the costs and burdens of world leadership. In other words, can China fill the American gap?
Answer/ Undoubtedly, the current international system faces challenges, including the existence of a still long distance between the American pole and other international powers that seek to approach its level and bridge the gap that separates each of them from it, whether in the field of military force, which is still the longest and largest existing gap between the American side and the other major powers, with the simple exception of the Russian Federation, or in the field of economic power, through achieving the greatest successes of other international powers in approaching the level of American power, or in scientific and technological power.
In the same context, the discussion about the rise of China as a global pole facing the United States of America has centered since the early 1990s around two axes:The first is how quickly China's economic and military capabilities are growing, and the second is how the world should respond to this rise
Fundamental changes occurred in China's view of the international community in the late 1970s and early 1980s due to the internal developments it brought about with regard to its national identity, strategic culture, and security interests, in addition to giving greater priority to the development of its national economy.
China has moved away from its revolutionary stance towards the international community by redefining its security concerns. This change in focus has served to focus on more cooperative interests that maintain stability and participation in the global political economy through participation in various international institutions.
In the economic field, China is the largest economic power in the world, and it is one of the countries that are paving their way towards development, wealth, and power and are making changes in the international economy. China has recorded the highest rate of economic growth since its accession to the World Trade Organization, with China's GDP ranking at that time reaching fourth place in the world.
In the military field, China ranks third in the ranking of countries in terms of military power after the United States of America and Russia, and China attaches great importance to increasing armaments and military development. In the field of technology, China focuses on using technology to develop its ecosystem. Recent Chinese policies stress the need to advance the development process and focus efforts on resolving prominent environmental problems, and to increase the strength of the protection of the technical and technological system.
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